Pros & Cons about 'Pros & Cons'
Try it out...
“As to methods there may be a million and then some, but principles are few. The man who grasps principles can successfully select his own methods. The man who tries methods, ignoring principles, is sure to have trouble.” — Harrington Emerson
Statistica reports that the Breakfast cereals market will clock sales of USD 72.80 billion in 20022 and will grow @ 3.96% p.a. till 2027, reaching almost USD 90 billion by then. This is a very profitable segment and hence draws the attention of many consumer companies worldwide.
But ever wondered, what makes people buy packaged cereals for breakfast? Is it the colorful packaging? Is it the aggressive advertising on every channel possible? Are the boxes shelved in a way to attract children in a supermarket?
According to my personal experience and informal survey conducted with friends and family, none of this plays as much a role as the word “FIBER” on the boxes. Some brands will even have “VITAMINS”, “MINERALS”, and “LOWER CHOLESTEROL” thrown in. My survey participants strongly believe in packaged cereals being a healthy choice.
The children don’t understand these words, but the parents do. And it is the consent of parents that allows children to bring this stuff home and dunk on it for years, making it a lifetime habit. Eventually, these kids will grow up, have families and allow their children too to feast on these star-shaped goodies. And the loop repeats, generating billions of dollars for mega-corporations like Kelloggs, General Mills, and many others.
In this whole process, these companies tap into the intuition of shoppers in a supermarket. Kids love cartoons and colors, so let's overwhelm them with these elements. Parents desire their kids to consume healthy foods, so let's overwhelm them too with enough “appropriate” words on the package that creates that impression. One packaging to achieve the twin objectives.
This is only possible because most decisions are an outcome of System 1 Thinking. Daniel Kahnemann defines it as “Our brains’ fast, automatic, unconscious, and emotional response to situations and stimuli. This can be in the form of absentmindedly reading text on a billboard, knowing how to tie your shoelaces without a second thought, or instinctively hopping over a puddle on the sidewalk.”
Hence, when you see “Fiber”, “Low Cholesterol”, or “Protein” - you are very likely to believe it and take it at face value. To a certain extent, you are designed that way, and to a larger extent, you do not have enough time at hand to logically think or research about the brand, its ingredients, it's packaging or the ill effects of this convenient breakfast.
Advertisers are aware of your constraints and our biological deficiencies (as a human species) and that’s what they capitalize on. Hence you see the following words while shopping in a mall or online - “Hurry till stocks last”, “only 2 seats left”, “limited edition” or “special offer”. All these gimmicks are designed to trigger your system 1 thinking and induce you into making a purchase where you were not even intending to buy anything.
But, if you would take time out to turn over the package and read the ingredients, research them, and then make an informed choice - then that would an example of System 2 Thinking. Daniel Kahnemann defines it as -
“The slow, effortful, and logical mode in which our brains operate when solving more complicated problems. For example, System 2 thinking is used when looking for a friend in a crowd, parking your vehicle in a tight space, or determining the quality-to-value ratio of your take-out lunch.”
It's thoughtful and hence takes more energy to pull off constantly. Since it runs against one’s natural tendency to make quick decisions, it is resisted unless you are forced to. And its this resistance that makes thinking deeply about any subject matter a dull affair. In fact, some would run away from the thought of even putting thought to any choice. They would like to go with the majority or outsource the thinking part to someone else.
Once this becomes a habit, you would struggle to think through any choice presented to you. You might land up buying into someone else’s opinion blindly or you would just make random calls and hope that these calls go right. That ain’t a wise method of decision-making. And it’s going to be a painful one if applied to investing.
And hence I would like you to give a shot to the ‘pros and cons’ list for the choices at hand. I am not suggesting that this method be used at all times, since that would hinder your daily productivity. There are tasks that are subconsciously ingrained e.g. the route you take to work, your workout schedule, your coffee habit, calling loved ones, etc. These work fine with System 1 Thinking.
But if you have goals at hand and you seeking a path to accomplish those, then the choices at hand in pursuit of these goals have to be thought through. And ‘pros and cons’ list is a simple, directional system that gets you started on thinking in the right direction.
I remember creating this list on many occasions -
Moving to Singapore or Dubai - I chose Dubai
Holding onto Mannapuram Finance or switching to LT Infotech recently - Switched to LTI
Buying a Mercedes or Volvo - Bought Volvo
Buying a house in Dubai or investing in stocks in India - Invested in India
Renting a house or buying a house - Rented a beautiful apartment in Dubai
Sticking to business or taking up a job - Took up a job (more on that below)
To lend money to a friend or refuse - I lent (what I was ok to lose, in case)
In many instances, choices were really tricky, and needed clarity for me to pick one. Many of these choices would impact all my family members, many involved a decent chunk of money, and few even had relationships on the line. And due to the stakes involved, I couldn’t just wing it and hope for the best. I had to dig deep, think through the pluses and minuses, bounce it off with my partner (Usha), and then move ahead.
Were my decisions the best? That I am not sure of, since I cannot experience the many other possibilities that I had. But thinking back, am I happy with the thought process that went into decision-making and led to the outcomes it did? Yes, indeed !!!
I started thinking of this topic yesterday when I got a piece of terrible news. The Head of Consumer Banking of my previous organization had passed away a few days back. And he had just recently retired to spend time with his family, but fate had other plans. I would always be grateful to him for answering my mail in 2015 when I was seeking employment and hoping to return to Dubai. Out of 100s of emails sent out, I only received a few responses, and one of the responses was his.
He set me up for an interview and luckily it went great, and life turned around for the better. But when I think of that decision to send the email to 100s of my contacts, expressing my concerns in my business and my desire to return to gainful employment - I had made a pros and cons list then too and it looked like this -
This list doesn’t actually express the emotions I was going through at that time. I was torn between entrepreneurship or employment, freedom or stability, extreme success or linear growth, independence or hierarchy. It was a rough time and I was mentally and financially stretched.
And this situation forced me to think through the objectives I was intending to achieve, and what topped the list was my family’s happiness. That required stability at that moment, and hence I made my choice.
Though I was told by many to continue to work in India, do not give up, do not take a job ever again, banking is tough and good days are over, and my partners will not like it. If I had given into others’ opinions, a lot of amazing memories created in the last 7 years wouldn’t have come true. I wouldn’t have a newsletter, or a podcast, or a CFA Charter, or success at work, or the many amazing friends I made since returning to Dubai.
All this happened because someone replied to my email. And that person isn’t there anymore. It’s sad but I am indebted to him for having contributed loads of happiness to me and my family.
This post feels like a gratitude note and it in a way is. I couldn’t express this to him enough and hence thought of expressing the same with my readers. The main message that you can take home is that there always is someone rooting for you if you just took the time out to communicate your goals, express your desires, establish strong bonds, mend relationships and go after what you believe !!!
I guess that’s why Dream 11 ads really resonate with me, especially the last line “Dream bada ho, toh koi akele nahin hota”.
All we can do is seek them out. They could be our gamechanger. They have been for me !!!
My Pros & Cons list helped me with that. It gave me a purpose to endure the challenging times and go through difficult conversations. It prepared me for the consequences and that didn’t hit me hard when it actually happened. It has always made my choices thoughtful and prepared me for a range of outcomes. And along the way, I did find the ones that rooted for me, educated me, supported me, and pushed me far and beyond.
I feel blessed. And the only way I can return the gesture is by paying it forward. And I will. This newsletter is one medium to contribute. And I’m sure there will be many more.
Looking forward to the journey ahead 🚀
Recommendations for the week #
Horizon Kinetics released their 1st/2nd Quarter Interim Commentary and I must admit that it spooked me a bit. It gets into the weeds of the US debt burden and how it could cripple the US under its weight. It’s a very insightful read and highly recommended. Warning - Do read it slowly to understand all of it well. I myself read it twice.
Jack Raines has been an interesting find for me in the blogosphere. His writing style is witty and informative. This time he covers the human bias of anchoring and this piece will show you the mirror for the mistakes you are committing while managing your personal portfolio.
Paul Graham never ceases to pen his most insightful thoughts, whether he is out on a walk or taking a shower. This time he talks about the ideas that hit you when you are idling and this is a very subtle topic, but it has a lot of clues hidden as to how you could control your mind well. Beautiful read.
I will be leaving for a 16-day trip across Norway, Finland, and Croatia - starting 26th May. Me and my wife are super excited about the same. She also will be attending her first-ever Longevity Convention on the 3rd & 4th of June in Helsinki. Feels good to have my wife with me at an event that covers topics that are really close to my heart i.e. longevity, anti-aging, and becoming superhuman (in a way).
I’m sure that post 4th June, she will be eating less of the packaged goodies that I spoke about in my piece today 🙏🏻 That would be a great start. Don’t tell her I told you all this ;)
I will be posting my next piece on June 18th. Though I will be posting on Twitter & Instagram regularly. Feel free to dm there if you’d like to stay connected.
Wishing you all a fantastic day ahead.
Stay Safe & keep the Monekeykongs away 🦠
Cya soon 🤝