Pascal's Wager
Real Life Applications of Game Theory
“If you don’t believe in God and God doesn’t exist, that’s fine, but if you don’t believe in God and God exists, then there’s a big problem.” - Blaise Pascal, a legendary French mathematician and physicist.
This a very interesting subject, and a sensitive one too. It also is a personal, ideological, and emotional domain. No wonder I have been warned umpteen times to not discuss this subject over social conversations. Money and politics are the other two subjects I’ve been asked to stay away from, and rightfully so.
Irrespective of your expressions around these subjects, a choice has to be made that could guide your actions and lead to a healthy state of mind within and a purposeful drive outside.
Should you believe in God?
Should you trust a politician?
Should you pursue material wealth?
These are just some questions in the context of the piece, but there would be many more questions that could be floating in your mind, waiting for some concrete action from you, but you still haven’t been able to make up your mind.
And the reason for the delay simply is that you, like everyone else, would like to be certain about making the right choice. This hunger for certainty is a biological trait and it would make anyone anxious about making a wrong choice, rendering them fearful, unproductive, and easily giving in to procrastination. This is a painful trip to be on for anyone and add to this the loss incurred due to missed opportunities.
But you don’t need to make certainty your cornerstone or aim for perfection in your choices. All you need to get better at is making choices where the odds are in your favor. That’s all that’s in your control i.e. increasing the chances of success. The outcomes were never in your control and hence stressing about them is futile and a trainwreck waiting to happen.
To increase the odds of your success on a consistent basis would need a mental framework that could come in handy in every situation. That’s where Blaire Pascal comes in with his reasoning around believing in God.
He looks at this choice through a decision matrix shown below -
There are four outcomes according to the wager (source) -
If a person believes in God and God actually exists, they receive infinite pleasure;
If a person does not believe in God and God exists, they receive infinite suffering;
If a person believes in God and God does not exist, then they receive some finite disadvantages for living a very restricted life;
And if a person does not believe in God and God does not exist, then they receive some finite pleasure for not having restrictions in their life.
Thinking through this decision matrix makes it very clear about the choice that is superior compared to others. Making a choice doesn’t guarantee any outcome, but it would certainly help in dealing with your anxieties and encourage you to move beyond your fears. Making a choice here equates to acting in your best interest now, in this moment, irrespective of what the future holds.
And it’s this making of a choice that moves you forward mentally, that shows up in your actions physically, which could translate into progress and success in life.
I am sure you would have noticed that I didn’t say which of these four choices is superior. What’s superior to me may be inferior to you. Our perspectives have so much to do with our experiences, upbringing, influences, and moments that have shaped us. And hence our choices are bound to be different, but choices must be made, so we move ahead in the physical world and take action.
A decision matrix could be made for other domains too. Let me share a few -
I recently had a discussion with a friend of mine regarding his choices of Business Schools that he was exploring. He was evaluating London Business School, INSEAD, and a few more. The costs involved were huge and he was confused about what to do. All I had to do was make a decision matrix (shown below) for him to make a call.
This is what the payoffs for choices look like and he will have to make a call on the basis of what’s important to him. If a career is important to him, then he will choose a Top B-school, making connections and increasing his odds for success in reputed firms.
If learning is more important to him, then he might go for Average B-school and take solace in the fact that he carves out some time on a daily basis for learning and education. This, in itself, is progress as it would allow my friend to devote attention to knowledge accumulation which would accrue huge benefits eventually, if not immediately.
I was constrained by money and hence made peace with studying at an average B-school. But I had to make up by hustling my way into various jobs or entrepreneurial roles. The umpteen jumps on my CV don’t make me look ideal candidate for a recruitment opportunity, but the lessons I got to learn on my journeys are invaluable.
If you gave me a magic wand to go back and change something in my life, I might just use this opportunity to stop Putin from invading Ukraine in 2022. As for my life, I wouldn’t change anything.
“Be miserable. Or motivate yourself. Whatever has to be done, it’s always your choice.” -Wayne Dyer
You could even make a decision matrix on your attitude and evaluate what the possible payoffs could be. Let me share with a few questions to practice this mental framework on -
Is optimism futile or could it pay handsome dividends?
Is being nice futile or could it pay handsome dividends?
Is being consistent futile or could it pay handsome dividends?
Is focusing on health futile or could it pay handsome dividends?
Think deeply about these.
Maybe there are a few insights hidden in here for you to discover on your own.
Wishing you all a fantastic weekend ahead🤝
Sending you loads of love and luck🧿
Manish
Love the matrix, as an explanation of the opening quote. Beautiful perspective